Despite recent stock market volatility, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) shares are down just 1% year to date, outperforming the 9% decline in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) at the time of writing. The banking giant continues to benefit from its fortress-like balance sheet and global diversification, making it well-positioned to navigate any economic environment.
That was the message from CEO Jamie Dimon presenting the bank’s first-quarter earnings report (for the period ended March 31). JPMorgan topped Wall Street estimates, with revenue climbing 8% year over year, while earnings per share (EPS) of $5.07 was up 14% from the prior-year quarter.
Yet the results arrived with a tone of caution. Jamie Dimon also said the U.S. economy faces “considerable turbulence” amid the looming impact of trade tariffs being implemented by the Trump administration.
Let’s discuss what tariffs and a trade war might mean for JPMorgan and its stock price outlook now.
JPMorgan started the fiscal 2025 year off strongly, with all three of its business segments delivering revenue growth.
The flagship Commercial & Investment Bank group saw excellent momentum, driven by optimism about the economic outlook at the beginning of the year and record market levels that propelled trading activity and deal-making. In the Consumer & Community Banking division, card services and auto lending have been growth drivers, reflecting resilient consumer spending. Asset & Wealth Management has also been a bright spot as continued net inflows boosted fee income.
Some of the key financial metrics that stood out in the first quarter include a 2% year-over-year increase in average loans and deposits, while JPMorgan’s book value per share rose 12% compared to Q1 2024, reaching $119.24.
Although it may have been business as usual for the bank in the first quarter, the outlook has grown increasingly uncertain. Officially, the bank is guiding for full-year net interest income of $94.5 billion, a 1% increase from last year. However, this number isn’t etched in stone, since it depends on the rapidly changing macroeconomic environment. For now, the escalating trade tensions present an operational and financial headwind.
In recent weeks, the Trump administration announced a major U.S. trade policy overhaul, implementing a 10% baseline tariff on most imports, with significantly steeper tariffs on specific countries like China. Although Trump has since rolled back some steps, pausing higher reciprocal tariffs for 90 days for most countries and allowing for some exceptions, experts warn that the measures may still cause economic disruptions. JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli now estimates a 50% recession probability, indicating that the bank is taking the risks seriously.
