With around-the-clock tariff headlines pounding stocks, recession calls or predictions for a sharp economic slowdown are coming into the light.

The most dire one dropped today.

BCA Research’s veteran strategist Peter Berezin said he sees a 75% chance of a recession within the next three months.

“Conventional estimates understate the likely impact on economic activity from the trade war and DOGE cuts. This implies that growth will slow more than expected,” Berezin said.

Berezin has gained attention of late for being the lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025. He has a year-end target on the S&P 500 (^GSPC) of 4,450. As of Thursday’s close, it sits at 5,738, after opening the year at 5,903. Berezin has been an economist for more than 30 years, with stints at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Goldman Sachs, and now BCA Research.

Watch: How billionaire investor Ray Dalio is navigating markets

Berezin outlined three key underpinnings to his prediction.

First, higher tariffs hammer real incomes of workers, which slows demand. Two, the shoddy way tariff policy is being handled is raising public and business uncertainty. Lastly, tariffs are likely to push up inflation and make the Federal Reserve less willing to cut interest rates.

Added Berezin, “Contrary to popular perception, the US is at greater risk of a recession than it was in early 2022. Back then, when we were still optimistic on growth, the US economy had plenty of insulation around it: Job openings were plentiful; households held more than $2 trillion in excess savings; and many homeowners had refinanced their mortgages at very low rates.”

JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi slipped in a warning of her own this week.

“Our baseline has treated the threat of USMCA tariffs as largely transactional based on our assessment that the economic damage from a meaningful sustained tariff hike would be too large — enough to throw the Mexican and Canadian economies into recession and also seriously damage US growth. While the scale and timing of the tariffs remains unclear, we are increasingly concerned about the uncertainty shock to business investment via the sentiment channel and have started to recalibrate our forecasts in response,” Szentivanyi pointed out in a new client note.

A recent influx of data underscores market watchers’ yawning concern on economic growth.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped for the third straight month in February. It notched the largest monthly decline since August 2021, as expectations for inflation — in part fueled by tariff fears — climbed.