October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) today is down -0.17 (-1.03%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) is down -6.20 (-1.27%).
Sugar prices are sliding today on the outlook for stronger sugar exports from India and Thailand. Hedgepoint Global Markets said today that it expects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 1.5 MMT, higher than a previous estimate of 500,000 MT. Also, it expects 2025/26 sugar exports from Thailand to climb +11.8% y/y to 7.6 MMT.
On Wednesday, London sugar rallied to a 5-week high on signs of stronger global sugar demand. China’s July sugar imports surged +76% to 740,000 MT, and Pakistan recently tendered for 200,000 MT of refined sugar.
On Monday, sugar prices fell to a 1-week low on the outlook for Brazil’s sugar mills to increase production. Covrig Analytics reported Monday that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar production over ethanol, crushing more cane for sugar. This trend is expected to continue as harvesting peaks, driven by drier cane crops that prompt mills to produce more sugar.
NY sugar rallied to a 2-month high last Tuesday on concerns over weaker cane yields in Brazil. Last Friday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in the second half of July fell by -0.8% y/y to 3,614 MT, and the 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through July fell -7.8% y/y to 19,268 MT. However, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills in the second half of July increased to 54.10% from 50.32% the same time last year. Also, Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, said last month that 2024/25 Brazil sugar production fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat.
The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices after Bloomberg reported that India may permit local sugar mills to export sugar in the next season, which starts in October, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Department reported Monday that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 611.2 mm as of August 18, or 1% above normal. Also, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association recently said that it will seek permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.