The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down by -0.10%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.52%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.13%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.60%.
Stock indexes are slightly lower today as retail stocks begin to report their earnings. The weakness in the Magnificent Seven stocks today is weighing on the overall market.
On the positive side, Home Depot recovered from early losses and is up more than +4% to lead the Dow Jones industrials higher after reporting a +3% jump in July comparable same-store sales. Lowes and Target will report their earnings on Wednesday, and Walmart will report on Thursday.
Lower bond yields today are supportive of stocks, with the 10-year T-note yield down -2 bp to 4.31%. US government debt garnered support today after S&P Global Ratings affirmed its AA+ long-term rating and A-1+ short-term rating on US debt and said the US can maintain its credit strength despite the fiscal hit of its recent spending bill because tariff revenues will “generally offset weaker fiscal outcomes.”
Today’s US housing news was mixed. US Jul housing starts unexpectedly rose +5.2% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.428 million, stronger than expectations of a decline to 1.297 million. However, Jul building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -2.8% m/m to a 5-year low of 1.354 million, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m to 1.386 million.
Diplomatic talks over the war in Ukraine continue to make headway. Ukraine President Zelenskiy said he came away with a commitment from President Trump late Monday to join security guarantees for any peace deal and reserve discussion on territorial swaps with Russia for later. The outcome of the talks could have macroeconomic implications regarding tariffs and oil prices, and could, of course, have significant consequences for European security.
The focus of the markets this week will be on any new tariff news and signs of progress toward a Ukraine peace deal, with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders continuing their meeting with President Trump in Washington. On Wednesday, the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting will be released. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +1,000 to 225,000 and the Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to fall to 6.7 from 15.9 in July. Also, the Aug S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.8. In addition, Jul existing home sales are expected to fall -0.3% m/m to 3.92 million. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook at the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.