October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Thursday closed down -0.10 (-0.61%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed down -2.20 (-0.47%).
Sugar prices settled lower on Thursday, with London sugar posting a 1-week low. Signs of stronger global sugar production in Brazil are weighing on sugar prices after Unica reported Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in the first half of July rose +15% y/y to 3.4 MMT. Also, the amount of sugarcane being crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills has increased to 54% from 50% the same time last year.
The outlook for higher sugar production in Brazil is bearish for sugar prices. Datagro said Monday that dry weather in Brazil has encouraged the country’s sugar mills to increase their cane crushing, diverting more of the cane crush toward more profitable sugar production rather than ethanol.
Last Wednesday, sugar prices fell to 3-week lows after Bloomberg reported that India may permit local sugar mills to export sugar in the next season, which starts in October, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Department reported Monday that cumulative monsoon rain in India is at 440.1 mm, or 8% above normal as of July 27. Also, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association on Thursday said that it will seek permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.
The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. That would follow a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar production in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
Sugar prices have retreated over the past three months, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low earlier this month and London sugar sliding to a nearly 4-year low, driven by expectations of a sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season. On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT, with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.