The dollar index (DXY00) Tuesday rose by +0.83%. The dollar moved higher on Tuesday on an increase in liquidity demand for the dollar as stocks fell after President Trump downplayed the chance of an early end to the Israel-Iran war and said he wants “unconditional surrender” from Iran. Gains in the dollar accelerated Tuesday afternoon on an increase in safe-haven demand as President Trump was set to meet his national security team, fueling speculation that the US may be on the verge of joining the attack against Iran.
The dollar rallied Tuesday despite weaker-than-expected US retail sales and NAHB housing market reports. The dollar continues to be undercut by expectations of weaker US economic growth and reduced foreign investment in the US caused by President Trump’s tariffs.
US May retail sales fell -0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.6% m/m. May retail sales ex-autos unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m versus expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase.
The US May import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.2% m/m, slightly stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m.
The US June NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -2 to a 2-1/2 year low of 32, weaker than expectations of an increase to 36.
President Trump played down the chance of a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war when he said that he hasn’t reached out to Iran for peace talks “in any way, shape or form” and that a “permanent end and not a ceasefire” to the nuclear dispute with Iran would be the goal.
The markets are discounting the chances at 0% for a -25 bp rate cut after the Tue-Wed FOMC meeting.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Tuesday fell by -0.72%. The euro retreated Tuesday due to a stronger dollar. Also, dovish comments Tuesday from ECB Governing Council member Stournaras weighed on the euro when he said the ECB may proceed with additional interest rate cuts if economic growth and inflation slow more than expected. The euro fell despite the German June ZEW survey expectations of economic growth climbing more than expected.
The German June ZEW survey expectations of economic growth index rose +22.3 to 47.5, stronger than expectations of 35.0.
ECB Governing Council member Stournaras said the ECB has found “equilibrium” on interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, but “if the Eurozone economy weakens further, if inflation decreases further below the target, then we may proceed to further rate cuts.”