Traders on Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, think there is an 81% chance of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September.

As per Polymarket traders, there is a 14% chance of absolutely no change to the interest rate, which means it will remain unchanged within the range of 4.25%-4.50%.

There is a modest 3% chance of the Fed cutting rates by more than 50 bps and a negligible chance of an increase of more than 25 bps.

The reason why crypto traders on Polymarket are predicting a rate cut by 25 bps the next month is the speech delivered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Aug. 20.

Though Powell didn’t commit, he hinted at a possible rate cut when the Fed officials come together for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sep. 16-17. He was addressing a gathering of economists and policymakers at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming when he made the remarks.

“The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

The crypto market expects a massive inflow of funds and a subsequent rally if the Fed cuts interest rates the next month.

Launched in 2020, Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market. The platform lets traders predict a number of events, such as political phenomena, economic decisions, box office results, crypto prices, etc., using cryptocurrency.

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Aug 22, 2025, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.