You could be excused for having missed the earnings reports for Archer Aviation (ACHR), Oklo (OKLO), and Plug Power (PLUG), all of which reported after market close on Aug. 11. Earnings season is a blur, for investors, traders, analysts, and writers alike.
We are at the mercy of stock prices dropping 10%, 20%, or even 30% instantly. No stop order or pre-earnings analysis can prevent these declines if a company with high expectations doesn’t meet them.
However, AFTER the report, while a trader might miss some giant up moves, they have a chance to pick through the wreckage. The aftermath of earnings is, to me, a much more opportunistic time to trade. That goes hand-in-hand with being a risk manager, which I certainly am.
When it comes to the trio discussed in this article, the earnings are out, the charts are clearer, and the market has passed judgement.
So let’s look forward, where we find that 2 of these 3 popular stocks are in danger of fading, while the other might just have a shot to appreciate strongly in the months ahead.
Here are the 3, side by side, using Barchart’s neat stock comparison feature. OKLO and ACHR tanked on earnings, joining a long list of blood-letting at the hands of disappointed traders and speculators. PLUG fared better, which makes sense in a 2025 sort of way.
This year, stocks tend to revert to the mean more than I’ve witnessed in the past. That is, if they rise sharply for a while, as OKLO did, they are priced for perfection, and the slightest bit of “not great” news produces selling pressure. Lots of it. Like the 17% 1-week loss suffered recently.
Other stocks tend to be given more leniency when they are down, such as PLUG, following its nearly 30% drop earlier this year. None of this is new to trading. Buy low, sell high, right? But the volatility is different. It is much higher.
This pair has a familiar look of stocks post-earnings. They are at different stages of fading from recent highs. OKLO is hanging in better, though the combination of its 20-day moving average turning down, along with its PPO (bottom of chart below) is concerning. The stock was a “4-bagger,” rising from $20 to the $80 range since last quarter’s earnings. So it appears to likely be ahead of even the rosiest outlook.
