Government bond yields are struggling to find direction ahead of the Fed announcement. A look at history shows the next move tends to be lower.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up 2 basis points around noon after spending much of the early morning fluctuating above and below the breakeven line. The yield gets closely watched by the market because it forms substantial basis for rates on mortgages, credit cards and the economy overall.
Some strategists are wary of yields falling lower in response to the Fed’s scheduled press conference at 2 p.m. today. Investors tend to overanalyze Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary on the path ahead and this time it’s likely going to be challenging for him to adequately convey the balance of risks, without worrying investors about the impact of the yo-yo tariffs and immigration tightening.