U.S. inflation for February came in lower than expected, and OPEC kept its demand growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1.45 million barrels a day and 1.43 million b/d, respectively.

Oil’s push toward the top of its recent $3 trading range despite stock market losses “is sending off some supportive vibes suggestive of further upside,” Ritterbusch says in a note. While the drop in oil prices since President Trump took office “looks successful thus far,” it has been for the wrong reasons “i.e., tariff-related expectations for global oil demand deterioration,” the firm adds.