Uncertainty about the global economy and Trump’s tariff plans have triggered a sell-off in the US stock market.

And with this volatility in markets, strategists at BNP Paribas expect gold to be a beneficiary amid what it calls “Trump tariff chaos and geopolitical shifts.”

In a note to clients on Wednesday, BNP senior commodity strategist David Wilson said the firm expects gold prices to breach $3,000 per ounce for the first time and ultimately reach $3,100 in the coming months.

“The Trump administration issuing a slew of tariff threats and the realigning of international relationships have added a new layer of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, providing a significant boost to gold,” Wilson wrote in a note on Wednesday.

BNP’s strategists raised their average 2025 forecast average by 8%, with prices expected to push above $3,100 per ounce during the second quarter of 2025, noting tariff fears have “dramatically” tightened the physical gold market.

On Wednesday, gold futures (GC=F) rose above $2,940 per ounce as US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from all countries took effect. Canada and the EU have responded with reciprocal tariffs.

“Physical tightness due to the surge in demand for moving gold into the US ahead of tariffs, a pick-up in central bank buying and an acceleration in physically-backed ETF gold demand have been key YTD gold price supportive factors, and we expect this to continue through 2025,” Wilson wrote.

However, Wilson forecasts that in the second half of 2025, “the gold market will price in or normalize” Trump-driven trade risks.

The strategist argues that without an ongoing escalation in trade tensions, gold prices will struggle to maintain further upside momentum in the second half of the year.

Gold futures have rallied more than 12% year to date, hitting multiple record highs since January.

Wall Street has attributed much of these gains to continued central bank buying and tariff uncertainty, including the possibility that even imports of the precious metal into the US won’t be spared.

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Institutional investors have shipped elevated amounts of physical gold bars to vaults in New York in a move to front-run tariffs and take advantage of a price disparity between London and New York.

Last month, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their year-end gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from their prior projection of $2,890.

Over the past year, the safe-haven asset has handily outperformed the US stock market, with the price of an ounce of gold rising more than 35% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has gained just over 8% in that period.